Spatiotemporal Analysis for COVID-19 Dynamic Spread, Dubai – UAE

Coronavirus (COVID-19) is interpreted as a worldwide major health problem. COVID-19 can cause respiratory infections extending from a simple cold to more severe sicknesses that may end in death. The vast spreading of COVID-19 is associated with humans’ interactions (as hosts) within the same environment. The main objectives of the study are to first use a Geographic Information System (GIS) to mimic the active spatial and temporal spread of COVID-19, constructed on the connections between people in the same environment, and second to use an Agent-based model (ABM) in order to simulate the dynamic spatial-temporal spread of COVID-19, based on the interactions between people (agents) at the same settings. This research assumes that COVID-19 transmission depends on public transportation networks, open facilities, and population density. This study supposed that COVID-19 spreading is influenced by the density of public transportation networks, open and locked facilities, and finally population density. The resulting map of the proposed COVID-19 spreading can be used as a means to
develop appropriate mitigation plans and allocate needed health services within susceptible areas. The City of Dubai in the United Arab Emirates was considered to apply the GIS COVID-19 spread models. Index Terms—COVID-19, UAE, Geographic Information System (GIS), Agent-based Model (ABM) Simulation